November New Light-Vehicle Sales Exceed Projections

New light-vehicle sales in November 2024 hit a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.5 million units, the highest since May 2021, and exceeded expectations. Sales volume for the month reached 1.36 million units, a 10.1% increase year-over-year, with retail sales contributing 1.19 million units. While an extra selling weekend in November 2024 explains part of the growth, the market’s strength is evident. Alternative-fueled vehicles (AFVs) now account for 19.7% of all new vehicles sold this year, with hybrids leading the way. Hybrid vehicles captured 9.9% of the market, a 2.4 percentage-point increase, and experienced a significant 35.2% rise in sales volume compared to last year.

Incentive spending by manufacturers rose sharply in November, averaging $3,291 per vehicle, a 42.3% increase year-over-year, which could further drive December sales. Leasing activity remains subdued, with fewer lease expirations compared to previous years, posing challenges for sourcing used inventory in 2025 and 2026. Despite these dynamics, NADA expects new light-vehicle sales for 2024 to exceed its forecast of 15.7 million units if November’s momentum continues into December. Inventory levels are projected to stabilize around 3 million units through most of 2025.

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